1. New England
Coach: Bill Belichick, 17th year (187-69)
Last year: 12-4, 1st place, AFC East (lost AFC Championship)
Outlook: The Patriots should still get to at least 10 wins, even without Tom Brady for the first four games. But this year presents new obstacles for Belichick and Co., between Brady’s suspension, a still-unsettled offensive line, and injury worries with Dion Lewis and Julian Edelman.
The Big Question: Can the Patriots muster up enough of that good, old-fashioned New England mental toughness? They’ve got the best roster in the NFL, but they’ll need to conquer several daunting outside forces to get back to the Super Bowl.
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QB T. Brady/J. Garoppolo DE R. Ninkovich/C. Long
RB LeGarrette Blount DT Alan Branch
FB James Develin DT Malcom Brown
WR Julian Edelman DE Jabaal Sheard
WR Chris Hogan OLB Jamie Collins
TE Rob Gronkowski MLB Shea McClellin
LT Nate Solder OLB Dont’a Hightower
LG Joe Thuney CB Malcolm Butler
C David Andrews CB Logan Ryan
RG Josh Kline SS Patrick Chung
RT Marcus Cannon FS Devin McCourty
2. Miami
Coach: Adam Gase, 1st year
Last year: 6-10, 4th place, AFC East (missed playoffs)
Outlook: Acknowledging up front that the Dolphins are annual disappointments, they’ve put some great young weapons around Ryan Tannehill, invested a ton into the offensive line, and have a stout defensive line. If Gase can coach, the Dolphins could be dangerous.
The Big Question: Can Gase get Tannehill to be more consistent? Tannehill shows flashes of greatness, but they are too few and far between. Tannehill is now on his third offensive system in five years — is it finally the right fit?
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QB Ryan Tannehill DE Cameron Wake
RB Arian Foster DT Earl Mitchell
RB Jay Ajayi DT Ndamukong Suh
WR Jarvis Landry DE Mario Williams
WR Kenny Stills OLB Jelani Jenkins
TE Jordan Cameron MLB Kiko Alonso
LT Branden Albert OLB Koa Misi
LG Laremy Tunsil CB Byron Maxwell
C Mike Pouncey CB Tony Lippett
RG Jermon Bushrod FS Isa Abdul-Quddus
RT Ja’wuan James SS Reshad Jones
3. NY Jets
Coach: Todd Bowles, 2d year (10-6)
Last year: 10-6, 2d place, AFC East (missed playoffs)
Outlook: The Jets basically return the same crew from last season, with newcomer Matt Forte joining Brandon Marshall and Eric Decker as the top weapons. The Jets’ season will come down to the play of Ryan Fitzpatrick. Anyone expect him to replicate 31 TDs against 15 INTs? Nope.
The Big Question: How much does Darrelle Revis have left? Though he did have an eye-opening five interceptions and four fumble recoveries last season, Revis had a tough time with the league’s younger, quicker receivers. Now at 31, can the man still be his own island?
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QB Ryan Fitzpatrick DE Leonard Williams
RB Matt Forte DT Muhammad Wilkerson
RB Bilal Powell DT Steve McLendon
WR Brandon Marshall DE Sheldon Richardson
WR Eric Decker OLB Lorenzo Mauldin
TE Kellen Davis MLB Darron Lee
LT Ryan Clady OLB David Harris
LG James Carpenter CB Darrelle Revis
C Nick Mangold CB Buster Skrine
RG Brian Winters FS Marcus Gilchrist
RT Ben Ijalana SS Calvin Pryor
4. Buffalo
Coach: Rex Ryan, 2d year (8-8)
Last year: 8-8, 3d place, AFC East (missed playoffs)
Outlook: The Bills have speed on offense with Tyrod Taylor, Sammy Watkins, LeSean McCoy and now Reggie Bush. And we know Rex will get after it with blitzes. But the front seven depth is shaky, they didn’t do much to replace Mario Williams, and we’re not sold on Taylor.
The Big Questions: Can Taylor develop into a winning quarterback? He had a great statistical season in 2015 — 20 TDs , 6 INTs and a 63.7 completion percentage in 14 games, plus 568 rushing yards. But he needs to rely less on his feet and more on his pocket passing.
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QB Tyrod Taylor DE Kyle Williams
RB LeSean McCoy DT Adolphus Washington
RB Reggie Bush DT M. Dareus/C. Bryant
WR Sammy Watkins OLB Jerry Hughes
WR Robert Woods ILB Zach Brown
TE Charles Clay ILB Preston Brown
LT Cordy Glenn OLB Lorenzo Alexander
LG Richie Incognito CB Stephon Gilmore
C Eric Wood CB Ronald Darby
RG John Miller FS Corey Graham
RT Jordan Mills SS Aaron Williams
1. Baltimore
Coach: John Harbaugh, 9th season (77-51)
Last year: 5-11, 3d place, AFC North (missed playoffs)
Outlook: The Ravens had a brutal year of injuries in 2015 and limped to the finish line. But Joe Flacco, Steve Smith and Terrell Suggs are back, and Harbaugh, who has made the playoffs in six of his eight seasons, always has his team ready to play.
The Big Question: Who are the playmakers on offense? Smith is back, but he’s 37 and coming off a torn Achilles’. Mike Wallace was signed from Minnesota, but how much does he have left at age 30?
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QB Joe Flacco DE Timmy Jernigan
RB Javorius Allen DT Brandon Williams
FB Kyle Juszczyk DE Lawrence Guy
WR Mike Wallace OLB Terrell Suggs
WR Steve Smith ILB C.J. Mosley
TE Crockett Gillmore ILB Zach Orr
LT Ronnie Stanley OLB Elvis Dumervil
LG Alex Lewis CB Jimmy Smith
C Jeremy Zuttah CB Shareece Wright
RG Marshal Yanda FS Lardarius Webb
RT Rick Wagner SS Eric Weddle
2. Cincinnati
Coach: Marvin Lewis, 14th season (112-94-2)
Last year: 12-4, 1st place, AFC North (lost in Wild-Card round)
Outlook: The Bengals have become the NFL version of “Groundhog Day.’’ They have talented playmakers on offense, a nasty veteran defense and one of the best rosters top to bottom in the NFL. And with Andy Dalton and Marvin Lewis running the team, they are destined to be one-and-done in the playoffs forever.
The Big Question: Can Dalton take the next step? He’s 0 for 5 in the playoffs, and needs to prove he can rise to the occasion in big games.
STARTING OFFENSESTARTING DEFENSE
QB Andy Dalton DE Carlos Dunlap
RB Jeremy Hill DT Domata Peko
RB Giovani Bernard DT Geno Atkins
WR A.J. Green DE Michael Johnson
WR Brandon LaFell OLB Karlos Dansby
TE Tyler Eifert MLB Rey Maualuga
LT Andrew Whitworth OLB Vontaze Burfict
LG Clint Boling CB Dre Kirkpatrick
C Russell Bodine CB Adam Jones
RG Kevin Zeitler FS George Iloka
RT Cedric Ogbuehi SS Shawn Williams
3. Pittsburgh
Coach: Mike Tomlin, 10th season (92-52)
Last year: 10-6, 2d place, AFC North (lost in divisional round)
Outlook: Ben Roethlisberger is one of the top quarterbacks in the NFL and will keep the Steelers competitive. Antonio Brown is uncoverable, and Le’Veon Bell should be great when he comes back from suspension. But the Steelers have too weak a defense to be serious contenders.
The Big Question: Will investments in the defense pay off? They have used first- or second-round picks on Cameron Heyward, Jarvis Jones, Ryan Shazier, Bud Dupree and Stephon Tuitt, but have slid down the rankings the last three years.
STARTING OFFENSESTARTING DEFENSE
QB Ben Roethlisberger DE Cameron Heyward
RB Le’Veon Bell DT Daniel McCullers
RB DeAngelo Williams DE Stephon Tuitt
WR Antonio Brown OLB Bud Dupree
WR Markus Wheaton ILB Ryan Shazier
TE Jesse James ILB Lawrence Timmons
LT Alejandro Villaneuva OLB J. Jones/J. Harrison
LG Ramon Foster CB William Gay
C Maurkice Pouncey CB Justin Gilbert
RG David DeCastro FS Mike Mitchell
RT Marcus Gilbert SS Robert Golden
4. Cleveland
Coach: Hue Jackson, 1st year
Last year: 3-13, 3d place, AFC North (missed playoffs)
Outlook: The Browns don’t even pretend to have false hope this season, taking a long-term view at their latest rebuild and collecting draft picks and saving salary cap space instead of signing pricey veterans. Jackson is a great young offensive coach, but they haven’t figured out their quarterback situation yet.
The Big Question: What does Robert Griffin III have left? The oft-injured Griffin didn’t play a snap in 2015, only played in nine games in 2014, and still has a lot to prove as a pocket passer.
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QB Robert Griffin III DE Xavier Cooper
RB Isaiah Crowell DT Danny Shelton
RB Duke Johnson DE John Hughes
WR Corey Coleman OLB Emmanuel Ogbah
WR Terrelle Pryor ILB Demario Davis
TE Gary Barnidge ILB Christian Kirksey
LT Joe Thomas OLB Nate Orchard
LG Joel Bitonio CB Joe Haden
C Cameron Erving CB Jamar Taylor
RG John Greco FS Jordan Poyer
RT Austin Pasztor SS Ibraheim Campbell
1. Indianapolis
Coach: Chuck Pagano, 5th year (41-23)
Last year: 8-8, 2d place, AFC South (missed playoffs)
Outlook: The Colts fell apart with injuries and their offensive line got Andrew Luck pummeled last season, but they still almost sneaked into the playoffs. The offensive line still isn’t great, but Luck is by far the best quarterback in a bad division.
The Big Question: Will the coaching changes work? They kept Pagano but have new coordinators and position coaches. Rob Chudzinski is the new offensive coordinator, and needs to find better ways to protect Luck and bring more balance to the offense.
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QB Andrew Luck DE Kendall Langford
RB Frank Gore DT David Parry
RB Robert Turbin DE Henry Anderson
WR T.Y. Hilton OLB Erik Walden
WR Donte Moncrief ILB D’Qwell Jackson
TE Dwayne Allen ILB Sio Moore
LT Anthony Castonzo OLB Robert Mathis
LG Jonotthan Harrison CB Vontae Davis
C Ryan Kelly CB Patrick Robinson
RG Hugh Thornton FS T.J. Green
RT Joe Reitz SS Mike Adams
2. Houston
Coach: Bill O’Brien, 3d season (18-14)
Last year: 9-7, 1st place, AFC South (lost in AFC Wild-Card)
Outlook: The Texans have retooled the offense, with Brock Osweiler now calling the shots. He is surrounded by Lamar Miller, Will Fuller and Braxton Miller along with DeAndre Hopkins. O’Brien is a good coach, but this feels like shuffling the deck chairs on the Titanic.
The Big Question: Pretty basic — is Osweiler a franchise quarterback? The Texans sure hope so after giving him $37 million and the starting job for the next two years.
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QB Brock Osweiler DE J.J. Watt
RB Lamar Miller DT Vince Wilfork
RB Alfred Blue DE Devon Still
WR DeAndre Hopkins OLB Whitney Mercilus
WR Jaelen Strong ILB Brian Cushing
TE C.J. Fiedorowicz ILB Benardrick McKinney
LT Duane Brown OLB Jadeveon Clowney
LG Xavier Su’a-Filo CB Kareem Jackson
C Greg Mancz CB Johnathan Joseph
RG Jeff Allen FS Andre Hal
RT Derek Newton SS Quintin Demps
3. Jacksonville
Coach: Gus Bradley, 4th season (12-36)
Last year: 5-11, 3d place, AFC North (missed playoffs)
Outlook: They have a promising young offense with Blake Bortles, Allen Robinson, Allen Hurns and T.J. Yeldon. But Bradley hasn’t been able to replicate the success on defense he had with the Seahawks. The Jags should be more competitive, but Bradley may not survive the year.
The Big Question: Is Bortles more than a “garbage stats’’ quarterback? Sixteen of his 35 touchdowns and 1,789 of his 4,428 yards (40 percent) came when the team was down by more than one score.
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QB Blake Bortles DE Dante Fowler
RB T.J. Yeldon DT Malik Jackson
RB Chris Ivory DT Roy Miller
WR Allen Robinson DE Jared Odrick
WR Allen Hurns OLB Telvin Smith
TE Julius Thomas MLB Myles Jack
LT Kelvin Beachum OLB Dan Skuta
LG Luke Joeckel CB Davon House
C Brandon Linder CB Jalen Ramsey
RG A.J. Cann FS Tashaun Gipson
RT Jermey Parnell SS Johnathan Cyprien
4. Tennessee
Coach: Mike Mularkey, 2d season (2-7)
Last year: 3-13, 4th place, AFC South (missed playoffs)
Outlook: The Titans are in a major rebuild and made several surprise cuts. The Titans have exciting young pieces on offense, but it comes down to the development of Marcus Mariota, who had a decent rookie year but finished with a knee injury.
The Big Question: Do the Titans have the pieces to help Mariota develop? The names are certainly intriguing — DeMarco Murray, Delanie Walker, and rookie running back Derrick Henry, who is built like a tank. They also have three first-round picks on the offensive line.
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QB Marcus Mariota DE DaQuan Jones
RB DeMarco Murray DT Al Woods
RB Derrick Henry DE Jurrell Casey
WR Rishard Matthews OLB Derrick Morgan
WR Tajae Sharpe ILB Wesley Woodyard
TE Delanie Walker ILB Avery Williamson
LT Taylor Lewan OLB Brian Orakpo
LG Quinton Spain CB Perrish Cox
C Ben Jones CB Jason McCourty
RG Chance Warmack FS Rashad Johnson
RT Jack Conklin SS Da’Norris Searcy
1. Kansas City
Coach: Andy Reid, 4th year (48-31)
Last year: 11-5, 2d place, AFC West (lost in divisional round)
Outlook: The Chiefs return pretty much every key piece from an offense that finished ninth in points scored and a defense that ranked third in points allowed. Not having Justin Houston for the first half of the season will hurt, but the Chiefs are a well-coached team who will take advantage of a Super Bowl hangover in Denver.
The Big Question: Can Alex Smith lead the Chiefs to the Super Bowl? He was steady last year, throwing just seven INTs and leading the Chiefs to an 11-5 record.
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QB Alex Smith DE Jaye Howard
RB Jamaal Charles DT Dontari Poe
RB Charcandrick West DE Allen Bailey
WR Jeremy Maclin OLB Dee Ford
WR Albert Wilson ILB Derrick Johnson
TE Travis Kelce ILB Ramik Wilson
LT Eric Fisher OLB Tamba Hali
LG Parker Ehinger CB Marcus Peters
C Mitch Morse CB Steven Nelson
RG Laurent Duvernay-Tardif FS Ron Parker
RT Mitchell Schwartz SS Eric Berry
2. Oakland
Coach: Jack Del Rio, 2d year (7-9)
Last year: 7-9, 3d place, AFC West (missed playoffs)
Outlook: The Raiders were feisty last season, and are this year’s sexy sleeper team with Derek Carr coming off a fantastic second NFL season. Carr and Amari Cooper have another year together, and the Raiders fortified their defense with Bruce Irvin, Sean Smith and Reggie Nelson. There’s a lot to like in Oakland.
The Big Question: Does any team have a better young trio than Carr, Cooper and Khalil Mack? Mack had 15 sacks, including five in one game. This is a big jump year for the Raiders.
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QB Derek Carr DE Mario Edwards
RB Latavius Murray DT Jihad Ward
FB Marcel Reece DT Justin Ellis
WR Amari Cooper DE Khalil Mack
WR Michael Crabtree OLB Bruce Irvin
TE Lee Smith MLB Ben Heeney
LT Donald Penn OLB Malcolm Smith
LG Kelechi Osemele CB David Amerson
C Rodney Hudson CB Sean Smith
RG Gabe Jackson FS Reggie Nelson
RT Menelik Watson SS Karl Joseph
3. Denver
Coach: Gary Kubiak, 2d year (12-4)
Last year: 12-4, first place, AFC West (won Super Bowl)
Outlook: The champs won on the strength of their defense last year, and most of the big names return (particularly that Von Miller guy). But Peyton Manning’s role as game manager and on-field coach shouldn’t be understated. We think the Broncos will have a little Super Bowl hangover.
The Big Question: Did the Broncos pick the right QB? They let Brock Osweiler walk out the door and instead traded up to the 26th pick in the draft to take Paxton Lynch. Trevor Siemian will start the season.
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QB Trevor Siemian DE Derek Wolfe
RB C.J. Anderson DT Sylvester Williams
RB Devontae Booker DE Jared Crick
WR Demaryius Thomas OLB Von Miller
WR Emmanuel Sanders ILB Brandon Marshall
TE Virgil Green ILB Todd Davis
LT Russell Okung OLB DeMarcus Ware
LG Max Garcia CB Aqib Talib
C Matt Paradis CB Chris Harris
RG Ty Sambrailo FS Darian Stewart
RT Donald Stephenson SS T.J. Ward
4. San Diego
Coach: Mike McCoy, 4th season (22-26)
Last year: 4-12, 4th place, AFC West (missed playoffs)
Outlook: The Chargers will get budding star receiver Keenan Allen back from injury, and they did add a deep threat in Travis Benjamin, but otherwise they did little to improve a decidedly average team that plays in the toughest division in the NFL.
The Big Question: Can the Chargers eliminate the distractions? The team is having trouble securing a new stadium in San Diego, is openly flirting with Los Angeles, and this season could easily devolve into a “Cleveland Browns in 1995’’ situation if the Chargers get off to a slow start.
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QB Philip Rivers DE Joey Bosa
RB Melvin Gordon DT Brandon Mebane
RB Danny Woodhead DE Corey Liuget
WR Keenan Allen OLB Melvin Ingram
WR Travis Benjamin ILB Manti Te’o
TE Antonio Gates ILB Denzel Perryman
LT King Dunlap OLB Jerry Attaochu
LG Orlando Franklin CB Brandon Flowers
C Matt Slauson CB Jason Verrett
RG DJ. Fluker FS Dwight Lowery
RT Joe Barksdale SS Jahleel Addae