Tax away

Central to the debate over tax policy is the question of how readily taxpayers — especially rich ones — move from high-tax jurisdictions to low-tax jurisdictions. If they scatter like birds, then it’s harder to raise overall tax revenue even if you raise tax rates. But researchers with Stanford University and the Department of the Treasury have come to the rescue. Analyzing the confidential IRS tax returns — and associated states of residence — of all filers from 1999 to 2011 who earned at least $1 million in at least one year during this period, the researchers found that the migratory response of these millionaires to state income tax rates was small, and it became insignificant when migration to Florida was ignored, even controlling for sales and property tax rates, unemployment rates, average incomes, and residential land values. State income tax rates also couldn’t account for millionaire population differences among counties and cities near state borders. The researchers estimate that the combined federal and state top income tax rate could rise to 68 percent before overall tax revenue would max out.

Young, C. et al., “Millionaire Migration and Taxation of the Elite: Evidence from Administrative Data,’’ American Sociological Review (June 2016).

Cleaning jobs

It’s generally assumed that environmental taxes and regulations hurt the economy and employment. Yet a new analysis that models both dirty and clean industries — and their competition for labor — finds that the net effect on employment is actually quite small. In the case of a pollution tax, the loss of employment in dirty industries is offset by a gain in employment in clean industries, as consumers shift purchases to clean industries, and as clean industries face less competition for workers. In the case of a pollution efficiency mandate (set to the same level of emissions reductions), employment doesn’t change much in either industry, since there’s less of an incentive, compared to a pollution tax, for dirty industries to reduce output. This makes the mandate more attractive if employment dislocations are an overriding concern.

Hafstead, M. & Williams, R., “Unemployment and Environmental Regulation in General Equilibrium,’’ National Bureau of Economic Research (May 2016).

Feminists won’t cry wolf

In a new study, and contrary to popular belief, women and self-described feminists weren’t necessarily more eager to support an accusation of sexual harassment. In both gender-harassment and unwanted-sexual-attention scenarios, women and feminists tended to judge accusations as more serious and legitimate, but only if the evidence was strong (i.e., the accuser had kept a diary of the incidents and witnesses, and there had been previous complaints). If the evidence was weak, women and feminists actually tended to judge the accusations as less serious and legitimate than men and nonfeminists.

Bhattacharya, G. & Stockdale, M., “Perceptions of Sexual Harassment by Evidence Quality, Perceiver Gender, Feminism, and Right Wing Authoritarianism: Debunking Popular Myths,’’ Law and Human Behavior (forthcoming).

You are what marketers say you are

As you browse the Internet, many websites try to present you with ads that are tailored to your interests, based on your previous browsing activity. A recent study suggests that such targeting can create a self-fulfilling prophecy. People who thought they had been presented with a targeted ad subsequently identified more strongly with whatever identity (e.g., sophisticated, environmentally friendly, outdoorsy) the ad conveyed, as long as that identity was not totally out of character for the recipient. This enhanced identity then induced a greater interest in buying said product and engaging in other identity-related behavior (e.g., donating to an environmental charity following a targeted ad for an environmentally friendly product).

Summers, C. et al., “An Audience of One: Behaviorally Targeted Ads as Implied Social Labels,’’ Journal of Consumer Research (June 2016).

Kevin Lewis is an Ideas columnist. He can be reached at kevin.lewis.ideas@ gmail.com.