Print      
As Abbas’s position weakens, speculation grows on successor
Mahmoud Abbas, the 81-year-old Palestinian president, is increasingly isolated. (Associated Press/File 2014)
By Ateven Erlanger
New York Times

RAMALLAH, West Bank — The past five months of Palestinian attacks on Israeli Jews have undermined the already weak political position of Mahmoud Abbas, the Palestinian president, who rules ineffectively over a divided people and failing institutions.

The attacks that have killed more than two dozen Israelis and several others are an angry, frustrated response among Palestinian youth to ongoing Israeli occupation of the West Bank and expansion of its Jewish settlements, even as Abbas’s Palestinian Authority continues to cooperate with the Israelis on security and other matters.

Talk of who will replace the nearly 81-year-old Abbas, and when, has surged. Arab countries like Egypt, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates have provided financial and political support to his rivals, including the former Gaza strongman, Muhammad Dahlan, now in exile in Abu Dhabi. Nathan Thrall, a senior analyst for the International Crisis Group, recently published a piece titled “The End of the Abbas Era.’’

There is discussion now of a more collective leadership, perhaps led by Nasser al-Kidwa, a nephew of the revered Yasser Arafat and a former foreign minister and Palestinian representative to the United Nations, alongside Majid Faraj, the current intelligence chief, and Salam Fayyad, the former prime minister and finance minister.

Faraj, who was born in 1962, is considered by both the United States and Israel as a discreet and trustworthy partner. He recently told Defense News that his forces had disrupted at least 200 attacks against Israel since October. That led to criticism from Hamas, the Islamist rival to Abbas’s Fatah Party and organizer of some of the attacks, and the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine, but some Palestinians understood it as an effort to save Palestinian lives, since scores have been killed by Israelis during attacks.

Fayyad, who never joined Fatah, is also respected by Israel and by the West, but has been cast out by Abbas as a perceived threat to his rule. Names of other potential successors also circulate, including Jibril Rajoub, a former Palestinian security boss who is said to have support from Qatar.

Dahlan’s name always surfaces. Now in lavish exile in Abu Dhabi, Dahlan, 54, was expelled by Abbas from Fatah in 2011 after Dahlan accused him, bizarrely, of helping to murder Arafat. Dahlan has a reputation for corruption but is well funded, reportedly with backing from Egypt and the Emirates, speaks Hebrew and English, and is believed to pump money into Palestinian refugee camps and Fatah’s militant wing.

Abbas might go sooner rather than later, said a former Palestinian negotiator who spoke on the condition of anonymity in order to be frank. Facing this new wave of violence, Abbas is typically paralyzed, said this former negotiator. “He can neither support it nor oppose it,’’ he explained, “so he shuts up and does nothing, which further enhances the perception that drives all this, that he and Fatah have produced nothing and will produce nothing, and that they are useless.’’

A December poll by the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research found that 65 percent of Palestinians wanted Abbas to resign. A similar portion favored another armed intifada, having lost faith in a negotiated peace and the Oslo accords on which Abbas has staked his career. Abbas “has achieved nothing,’’ Sheikh Taha Qattanani, 43, said in a recent interview. “We Palestinians deserve a stronger leadership, regardless of whether it’s Fatah or Hamas.’’

Ramiz Hassouna, 45, a Fatah supporter, said: “Now Fatah has no strategy or plan for the Palestinian people, and Fatah members have lost their dedication to the land and to the Palestinian cause. They’re more interested in their bank accounts.’’

While most believe Abbas intends to die in office, his isolation is increasing. Abbas “is like a tree in the wind, with leaves blowing off everywhere,’’ said a former aide. “He thinks everyone is listening to him, but no one is listening anymore.’’