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Rosengren affirms stand on raising interest rates
Chief of Boston’s Fed cites risk of overheated economy
By Deirdre Fernandes
Globe Staff

Eric Rosengren, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, is worried that the central bank will botch the country’s fragile recovery, leading to an inflation-induced recession.

After failing earlier this week to persuade members of the Federal Reserve rate-setting committee to boost interest rates for the second time since the end of 2015, Rosengren on Friday pitched his concerns about allowing the economy to overheat to a broader audience.

“The economic progress since the last tightening in December might, by itself, be sufficient to justify a further increase in the rate target,’’ Rosengren said in a rare statement. “However, it is in considering the implications of current policy for the sustainability of the expansion that the case for raising rates has now become even more compelling.’’

Some analysts and economists were skeptical.

“I think with Eric, this picture he’s painted of moving into a inflationary environment is somewhat overdrawn,’’ said Brian Bethune, an economics professor at Tufts University. “I don’t see anything there for the seeds for future inflation. It’s quite the opposite; I don’t think the bogeyman is out there.’’

The Fed’s preferred measure of inflation, known as core PCE, stood at 1.57 percent in July. That’s up from 1.31 percent a year earlier, but still below the 10-year average of 1.65 percent. Wages increased a modest 2.4 percent in August from the prior year, but at a slower pace than in July, according to the Labor Department. Energy prices remain low and business investment in the economy is weak.

None of those are signs of a potentially overheating economy, said Steven Ricchiuto, chief economist for Mizuho Securities Co. Ricchiuto said he fears that an oversupply of energy and other commodities could drive prices down.

“They haven’t gotten that deflation is more of a concern than inflation,’’ Ricchiuto said. “It’s a world of excess supply.’’

In his statement Friday explaining his vote to oppose the Federal Reserve’s decision to keep interest rates at current levels, Rosengren warned that the labor market is tightening and that unemployment will probably drop below 4.5 percent by 2019. That might be a good for workers, but is unsustainable in the long run, he said.

“Unemployment this low may well have the desirable effect of bringing more workers into the labor force,’’ he said. “Historical experience suggest it also risks overheating the economy, the effects of which include heightened pressure on inflation and potentially increasing financial-market imbalances.’’

The Fed can fix those imbalances by raising rates, but that can be a tricky maneuver, he said. If the Fed has to raise rates too quickly to control inflation, it could put the brakes on the economy and trigger a recession.

“Gently backing the economy away from such imbalances has proved to be difficult in the past,’’ Rosengren said. “Such overshoots have in the past always resulted in a recession, rather than a return to the full employment level.’’

Rosengren is right to be concerned about keeping rates too low, and gradually increasing them by a quarter point now is unlikely to disrupt the economy’s growth, said Dan Thornton, with Missouri-based D.L. Thornton Economics LLC and a retired vice president at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

Deirdre Fernandes can be reached at deirdre.fernandes@globe.com.