DUBLIN — Early results in Ireland’s general election indicated Saturday that voters had firmly rejected the center-right government, but it remained unclear if any party will have enough seats in Parliament to form a government.
The complexity of the Irish proportional representation system means that the final count in the 158-seat Dail may not be completed until the middle of next week. However, it is already certain that the governing coalition will lose too many seats to retain power, with the minority Labor Party suffering the highest casualties.
Tom Curran, the main election organizer for Fine Gael, the senior party in the governing coalition, conceded that it would probably be a “very disappointing day from the government’s point of view.’’
An exit poll, commissioned by The Irish Times and released Saturday, suggested that Fine Gael would remain the largest party in Parliament with 26 percent of the vote, followed by Fianna Fail with 23 percent. Early official results appeared to bear out the predictions.
Political analysts believe the most likely result will be a hung Parliament, in which no single party has enough seats to take power. It is little surprise then that “earthquake’’ is the word used most on social media to describe the results so far.
After almost a decade of austerity, voters have become increasingly frustrated and cast ballots for opposition parties and independent candidates.
More than a third of votes went to independent candidates and smaller parties, but they would probably not be in a position to form a government.
Fine Gael and Fianna Fail were running neck and neck, creating the prospect of a coalition between the two center-right parties that have swapped power between them for more than 80 years. If they do decide to broker a coalition, it would open a clear left-right divide for the first time since the Irish state was formed in 1922.
Both parties evolved out of Ireland’s bitter civil war, and it can be difficult for outsiders to discern the differences between them. However, a coalition would involve burying generations of enmity and a realignment of the political spectrum.
Neither party has the numbers to form a government on its own or with a single third party. And both parties have ruled out cutting a deal with Sinn Fein, once the political wing of the Irish Republican Army.
The alternative to forming a coalition is holding another election. But the two parties would then run the risk of further alienating a weary electorate who would wonder why they were unable to forge an alliance for the sake of political stability given that both are prepared to work with smaller parties with radically different agendas from them.
As well as creating a historic realignment, if Fianna Fail did enter the government, it would cede the mantle of main opposition party to Sinn Fein, which would virtually guarantee the continued rise of that party’s popularity.
In the exit polls, Sinn Fein attracted around 16 percent of the vote, and soon after counting began it was confirmed that Gerry Adams, the party’s president, had won in his County Louth constituency.
Martin McGuinness, a Sinn Fein veteran and the deputy first minister of Northern Ireland, described the election as hugely successful for his party.